United States: Increased risk of grid blackouts ahead warns North American Electric Reliability Corp (NERC)

The North American Electric Reliability Corp (NERC) has sounded the alarm that this summer, a number of states in the central and upper midwest, Texas, and Southern California, might be hit with blackouts due to the increased risk of power outages. This risk was outlined in the nonprofit's annual summer assessment and comes as a result of climate extremes. 

In the 2022 report, it was outlined that there will be an increased risk due to wildfires, extended droughts, extreme heat, storms, and flooding in the central and upper Midwest, Texas, and Southern California, which "could require system operators to use emergency procedures, up to and including temporary manual load shedding." Of course, this situation is not a new phenomenon, and during a media briefing, John Moura, director of reliability assessment and performance analysis at NERC, said that it's clear "the risks are spreading." 

Speaking about what the report indicates, Moura, told CBS MoneyWatch, in "close to 30 years" experience, this latest forecast is "one of the grimmest pictures we've painted in a while."

The report explored a number of concerns and specifically used the example of electronic controls which link wind and solar farms to high-voltage grid networks- it noted that many are currently not able to keep working in the face of disturbances, which is "one of the most dangerous things to happen on the bulk power system." It has also been highlighted that as States look toward decarbonizing the grid to help mitigate climate change, decarbonization could lead to further challenges. This is due to the intermittent nature of renewables such as wind and solar energy. Likewise, hydroelectricity, which is often relied upon as a backup when wind and solar don't suffice, is also at risk this summer due to droughts. One just has to look back to last year, when a major California hydroelectric power plant was forced offline due to low water levels at Lake Oroville, to understand the increased risk this causes. 

Last year, NERC made equally grim predictions that nearly 40% of the US population was likely to face blackouts, but most of the grid ended up being unaffected. That said, Brian Stone, a professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology and researcher in urban climate change notes that blackouts have been increasing year on year, with a "doubling in the number of blackouts per year in the last five years." Stone also outlined that the danger posed by heat waves is perhaps the most underestimated form of damage caused by climate change. He commented: "In a city like Phoenix, air conditioning is life support for people, and if you have a disruption, that's a tremendous vulnerability," he said. "I characterize it as the greatest health-related threat that climate change poses to this county — a blackout during a heat wave."